Oceania Dairy Market Overview at the end of November 2019

Report 47 – Released on November 21, 2019

AUSTRALIA:

Uneven hay production has kept active hay movements around Australia, adding to costs fordairy producers. Extremely windy, hot and dry weather in Northern Australia has adverselyimpacted hay production. Hay from Southern Australia and Victoria, excluding SoutheastAustralia, is trucked North to help meet demand. It has been too wet to bale hay inSoutheast Australia.

Rumors of possible changes to the proposed new Australian Dairy Code, which are believed topermit processors to amend contracts should unforeseeable events occur, are leading to vocalpushback by dairy producers. Current concerns relate to a draft proposal currently circulating in limited distribution. An earlier draft of the proposed rule prohibited suchafter the fact changes. Part of the anxiety of producers is the lack of certainty as towhether the amendment to the proposal is real, or rumor. In any event, very active publicdiscussion is occurring at dairy meetings around Australia.

NEW ZEALAND:

In New Zealand October is the month with peak seasonal milk production. October 2019 NewZealand milk production reported by DCANZ was 3,213 million MT, down 2.6 percent fromOctober 2018 milk production, 3,299 million MT. October 2019 milk solids, 266,907 millionkg, are down 1.5 percent from October 2018, 271,080 million kg. This results in current season milk production through October being 0.7 percent lower than this point last season,according to Eucolait. However, milk production this season through October is up slightlyon a milk solids basis. The October 2019 monthly results, being slightly below October2018, were anticipated by some New Zealand based dairy industry people. There is lessspeculative agreement as to whether the seasonal backside will contribute to generatingmore, or less, milk than last season. In any event, it is more widely expected that seasonalproduction will be within the range of last season. It is many months until official datawill be available, and the seasonal totals are known.

Active disagreement continues within New Zealand as to changes to law involving fresh waterrules. A specific point of disagreement involves irrigating naturally dry areas to supportmore cows. There are advocates for reducing irrigated water availability, thus leading tofewer cows. Advocates of restricting irrigation for dairy assert that the magnitude ofcurrent irrigation is adversely impacting overall water purity and making New Zealand a lesspopular recreational and tourist destination.